TotD: Brexit

I actually cannot believe I am writing a blog after the Leave vote won in the recent Brexit Referendum. It's a little shocking, it's a little scary, it's very exciting!

This article and blog is going to be super long. Most of you will probably be bored reading all of it.

Here's some divisions:

1. The History of the European Union's 'ever closer union' and the effects of such on Ireland.
2. As Irish people should we be mourning Brexit or congratulating Britain?
3. The future.
4. What Should Enda Kenny do right now?

1. The History of the European Union's 'Ever Closer Union' and the effects on Ireland:
I believe the European Union has been overstepping what is politically wise and good since as far back as 2004 when the Treaty for a European Constitution came on the scene, a treaty that effectively sought to create a United States of Europe akin to the United States of America, though a little less politically unified.

Basically, such a constitution would override the Irish constitution in constitutional matters.
It was rejected by some countries that held a referendum on it, meaning it moved into political limbo.

Until a couple of years later when Europe gave us the Lisbon Treaty, basically this treaty is the same without the slightly more federal nation slant.
This Treaty was one that was taken as seriously as the Constitution Treaty, it was said that if any nation state within the Union rejected it it would join it's predecessor in political limbo.

Ireland rejected the Treaty of Lisbon in 2008, the EU did not respect the Irish people and their democratic right not to devolve power to the European parliament. As a nation we were walked all over, demoralised and told our voice was not important in a new, bigger, more powerful Europe.
It is true that the EU granted concessions to Ireland before Lisbon II could be voted on.

Those concessions included Ireland keeping:

• Taxation laws, so that the EU could not interfere with our corporate tax rate which attracts millions, if not billions in foreign investment annually. Hey, doesn't that sound like something Europe has been complaining about recently?

• Our neutrality even despite the creation of a united EU military. They're okay on this one so far.

• Our right to decide on the morality and legality of abortion in this country, something which in late 2010 the Human Rights court in Europe judged as against Article 8 of the European Human Rights Convention. Though the EU court did not go as far as the UN group did recently it was this decision that resulted in Ireland's first abortion bill, really meaning that Europe didn't stay out of Ireland's right to decide on the morality and legality of abortion ourselves.

On top of this the Lisbon Treaty took away the voice of Ireland by making voting based on population as well as country representation. So, 55% of countries representing 65% of the population of the EU now have to pass things in the Council of Ministers (the Council of the European Union) it acts a little like Seanad Éireann to the European Parliament (which by the way has 751 MEPs, of which 11 are Irish, that's 1.5% in comparison to Germany's 12.8%, France's 9.9%, Italy and the UK's 9.7% [up until today]).

There is some sense to the idea that a country of 4.5 million people cannot decide policy or block changes that those representing millions more have approved, but there is also some sense to the idea that each member state of the European Union should be treated equally, irrespective of how many people live in their country. Weighting by population will always unfairly favour bigger nations, allowing the present dominance in Europe that Germany has.

2. Should the Irish be mourning Brexit or congratulating Britain:

My honest thoughts on this is both.

Brexit changes the political landscape in Europe, especially on these two islands off the coast of Europe, in unprecedented ways. We are entering a situation that has never been seen before, one that could certainly qualify for the title of The Second Emergency of Ireland in the future dependent on how things go from here.

There is uncertainty about the border with Northern Ireland, there is uncertainty as the Scotland's [and maybe even Northern Ireland's] continuing position within the United Kingdom, there is uncertainty over the financial market and the position of the pound, there is uncertainty about trade with EU nations etc. etc.

Most importantly there is uncertainty for many many British people living in other EU member states and citizens of other EU member states living in the UK. That is hard, and in the coming days the first priority of a new United Kingdom government should be to clarify these things, to put people at ease or to allow them time to plan for leaving, if that is what will happen. That should be first priority for Boris once he becomes PM.

Change is always scary, but change is not always bad.

England and Wales have stood up for what they believe in. An England and Wales that are in control of their own future, who can decide on immigration themselves, who can make laws without being subject to the desires of France and Germany (which as we have seen above make up a fair amount of the decision making ability in the European Parliament).

It is exciting that a country would look at the current situation and think "you know, not better the devil you know" when that devil has become as bad as many UK voters believe. That's commendable. Certainly, it is a scary time, things definitely will be bleak and unclear for a year or two, but it is always great to see a smaller (even though the UK isn't small) power stand up to a bigger power and say "no, we've had enough".

I don't think Ireland should point the finger at Britain (or England and Wales specifically) and call them stupid, tell them they are unliked as a result of this, hate them etc. etc. Reacting in fear to things like this is what got Hitler into power, and will likely make Donald Trump the next US President. Time to learn from the mistakes of the past (even if they were the Leave campaign) and move forward, no more fear, no more accusations, but friendship.

3. The Future:

So, what does the future hold?

To quote Master Yoda, "clouded the future is", but here are some things I think could happen.

This is the big one, the one I really hope doesn't happen.

The European Union Reacts to Brexit (Worst Case Scenario).

If the EU chooses to react to Brexit in a negative way, attempting to make an example of the UK by imposing harsh export and import taxes on trade with the UK this would be a disaster!

The European Union is going to be shaking in their Italian shoes right now, and for the coming months, especially if (as many predict) a Brexit results in increased Euroskepticism.

If the EU see the possibility of more of the remaining 27 member states leaving then they may react by punishing and making an example of the British.

This would be disastrous for Ireland. The UK receive the second largest percent of our exports (15.1% in 2014, worth around €13.45 billion to our economy that year. Our biggest trading partner is the USA 22%, Belgium was next at 13%). The UK also send things to this country, making up 32.3% of our imports, or almost 1/3 of everything we import.

You can see that if the European Union were to place tariffs on exports to and imports from the UK it would have massive, devastating effects on the Irish economy.

In the event of an EU reaction to Brexit of this type Ireland would need to attempt to make our own trade agreements with the UK, despite the EU. If the EUs stance was hard enough it may result in Ireland having to give some serious consideration to Irexit.

However, we trade as much with our EU partners, more collectively, as we do with the UK. It is important for Ireland to maintain good relationships with the UK, as well as the EU and the USA. This will be tricky water to navigate, especially if my worst case scenario comes about.

The Norway Approach (Best Case Scenario for Ireland)

Norway is not part of the European Union, however, Norway have trade and movement of people agreements with the European Union.

This result would basically mean that the status quo continues as it has. Britain no longer are involved in the EU politically but are economically and demographically. The access to the free market and immigration rights of Europeans would remain the same, but the UK would be free of the undemocratic elements within the European Union for which it sought to leave in the first place.

However

I don't feel this scenario is the likely outcome (at least not immediately, perhaps in the future after a policy of self-sufficiency crippling the British economy is abandoned a la Ireland under DeValera). Sadly there was more to this Brexit than a dislike of the way Europe is run politically, there is also the issue of immigration. For Norway to have access to the European Free Market they also have to allow immigration and free movement of European citizens, that's the trade off. For the time being it is unlikely Britain would accept such an agreement.

My prediction is that in the next 20-50 years Britain (or what is left of her) will enter such an arrangement, but it is hard to see it happening in the next five or more.

Brexit Referendum II:

Europe have a long history of not accepting decisions of sovereign nations (part of why the UK are after voting to leave). Perhaps the EU will not accept the Brexit result and make concessions to the UK, as happened with Ireland, to secure their remaining in the European Union.

I imagine some people in Brussels are considering this line of talks right now.

This would surely only compound the perception of the EU as undemocratic in the UK and result in a Brexit anyway, just a delayed one.

Scottish Independence:

As they voted 'Remain' it is possible if not likely that a second Scottish independence vote will be held in the next five years and succeed this time. This is made even more likely if the vote comes in a time of instability in a year or two's time when Britain is struggling to stay relevant.

If Scotland become independent they will join the EU themselves.

A United Ireland?

Norn Iron also voted to 'Remain', the Republic is in the EU, already there are calls for a Referendum on a United Ireland and provisions exist for such an outcome since the Good Friday Agreement and other peace agreements.

A United Ireland Referendum will not pass, if it does go ahead.

EU Reform:

The opposite of my worst case scenario on the European Union side of things is that this Brexit makes people quake in their stylish Italian shoes and causes major reform in order to keep other countries from exiting with Britain in the coming years. This reform would need to be beneficial to Ireland, our sovereignty and democracy. It would be up to the government to fight for a fair outcome for Ireland, to take the initiative, seize the opportunity and lead, have their voices heard, instead of sitting back and allowing Europe to happen.

The potential negative consequences of an EU minus the UK is more power goes to Germany and France, the countries who have the most say in the EU right now.

The potential good consequences are an ever friendlier, but politically independent and democratic European community. This is the dream and the prayer.

4. What Should Enda Kenny Do Right Now?

1. Opportunity Knocks:

If I was Enda Kenny I would be very nervous, but also very excited right now. Enda Kenny has just been handed the opportunity of a lifetime. He could make himself the most important Taoiseach in Irish history, outshining even DeV, if he handles this right.

Unfortunately Enda and FG are not in a good position to rise to this challenge, they are a minority government being propped up by the opposition. However, I believe Kenny has the ability to be that Taoiseach if he is given the chance.

2. Government Stabilisation:

The first thing I would do right now if I were Taoiseach in his situation is hold a meeting with all the party leaders. Ireland needs to be united (the Republic parties, not the North and South necessarily), difficult change is coming and an unstable government is of no benefit to the Republic now. Difficult negotiations will have to be made in the lifetime of this government. Kenny needs to secure support from FF and maybe even SF that going forward the parties will discuss what is best to do in negotiations with the EU and the UK and not stand in the way of securing the best deal for Ireland within all of this.

That means that FF will need to concede to FG, but also FG will need to concede to FF, Lab, SF and others. There is no mandate on the government for dealing with this.

If the government parties cannot agree to move forward as one in these negotiations and areas then the government will collapse and a general election will be called. The benefit of this is the government would have a mandate going forward into EU and UK negotiations, the downside to this is it would waste valuable time as a hung Dáil is the likely outcome again.

3. Assure the People:

Of course this is hard, but there is a large British population living in the Republic of Ireland, there is the uncertainty over the borders with the North. It is important for Enda Kenny to reassure the people. To tell them he and his government, and all government parties, will do everything they can in order to minimise the disruption to life for these citizens.

Enda Kenny needs to lead here, not back down, not wait to see what happens, but to put his head on the chopping block, to provide a figure for people with concerns to rally behind. He may make the wrong promises, the EU may come down heavy and make what we hope for impossible, but Kenny needs to stake his career on protecting the open border and the right of British citizens to live and work and vote here.

4. Follow His Assurance Up At the Negotiating Table:

Kenny, now with his position of Taoiseach on the line, then needs to go to the EU and go to the UK and fight for the best outcome for Ireland. If I were him I would be calling Downing Street as soon as a new PM is appointed and arranging a trade and movement of people meeting.

The agreements we have with the UK come more as a result of our former stance as a colony, dominion and member of the Commonwealth than from any formal agreements and laws, it is the status quo, not the rule of law.

This needs to change, the agreements between Ireland and the UK need to be formalised, before the European Union has time to react and say anything. Securing this deal is good for Irish people and our economy and citizens in the same way as it would be beneficial for the UK to formalise these agreements for the good of its own economy and citizenship.

This agenda will not be a priority for a new UK administration. This is where Kenny needs to step up again. He needs to hound the future PM and make sure that the relationship with Ireland is put on the agenda really quickly.

5. Push for EU Reform:

It has been outlined above what I think is rotten in the EU in relation to Ireland and our representation within that Union. I have already expressed that I do not wish for an 'ever closer union', nor do I wish for Ireland to leave the European Union, but EU Reform is certainly required.

I hope for 

Conclusion:

This period offers us a great amount of uncertainty, but every challenge presents an opportunity far greater than the challenge. I hope and pray for greater relationships with the UK and Independent Scotland in the future and for great relationships with our European partners.

I see an ever friendlier, but politically independent and democratic European community as a real possibility for the future of the European Union.

Our politicians: Irish, UK and EU, all need to be sensible and reasonable with one another, maintaining friendship in the best interests of the country and in the relations between nations.

Irish politicians need to be 'aggressive' not passive. They need to keep the Irish agenda on the desk in Downing Street and the issue of an ever friendlier, but politically independent and democratic European community on the desk in Brussels and Berlin.